The investment case for Hounslow, London

The investment case for Hounslow, London

We view Hounslow as an attractive component of a diversified London portfolio, with an investment case that rests on a distinctive set of local factors.

Firstly, population growth versus supply of new housing stock. Hounslow’s population growth is the fifth highest of any borough in Greater London, at 19.6% growth in the period 2001-13, and local house-building is simply not keeping pace.

Secondly, the area is undergoing a programme of regeneration, which typically increases demand for local housing stock.

Thirdly – and whilst a more speculative factor, it has the potential for even more of a significant impact – is the possible expansion of Heathrow airport. This is because local GDP is a meaningful driver of property capital and rental growth, and the airport’s expansion is forecast to add a further 50,000 jobs in the five surrounding boroughs, which include Hounslow.

We note that Hounslow’s average property values are significantly below those of surrounding areas – such as Brentford, Isleworth and Osterley. This provides opportunity for capital growth as residents in nearby areas seek better value relative to where they live today.

It is also worth remembering that Hounslow is very well-connected by road and train – with the latter to improve further, with the opening of the new Crossrail line in 2019 which will run from nearby Heathrow airport.

These points are discussed further below, or you can go directly to our property page by clicking here.

 

High population growth versus supply of new housing stock

The Hounslow population has grown 19.6% from 2001-2013, whereas during the same period, there has only been a 13% increase in new homes in the borough. The source data is here.

 

Regeneration of town centre

£2.5m from the Mayor’s Outer London Fund and an extra £1.2m from the London Borough of Hounslow has been allocated to improve Hounslow town centre and bring even more visitors to the area. The aim is to capitalise on proximity to Heathrow and expected growth in West London.

The council is planning a facelift for the high street area, including a new town square functioning as a performance-space. There are plans for more than 15 major annual outdoor events and celebrations in the area.

 

Heathrow Airport and a possible new runway

Heathrow Airport is the UK’s largest single-site employer and is 5-25 minutes from Hounslow (depending on where in Hounslow you travel from). Heathrow and on-site businesses employ 76,500 people and, crucially, 50% of the workforce live nearby.

A commission established by the government has concluded that a new runway is needed for London. The government itself is formally undecided and a decision on the issue would likely be easier to make after the upcoming General Election. The economic case appears strong: the Chairman of the Airports Commission has warned there will be significant risks to the UK economy if the next government does not take the decision to add another runway.

Heathrow Airport is bidding to build this new runway. If it comes, it is estimated that it will provide more than 120,000 new jobs: a huge new source of employment in the area. This has the potential to dramatically improve employment prospects in the five neighbouring boroughs – of which Hounslow is one.

The other candidate for an additional runway is Gatwick Airport, but the government commission estimated the national GDP impact of a Gatwick runway to be £100bn lower than for a Heathrow runway. And tellingly, on the 18th of December, Gatwick executives failed to appear publicly before Parliament to answer questions on their proposal.

If the new Heathrow runway goes ahead, £550m has been promised for noise insulation and the new runway would use quieter next-generation aircraft, 90% of the time.

 

Lower house prices than in any surrounding area

House prices in Hounslow are lower than those in the surrounding areas. Hounslow’s prices are lower than those in any of the 9 nearby areas. The average price in Hounslow is £300k, while prices in the neighbouring areas range from £361k to £934k, so the difference is a large one.

As residents in West London seek better-value areas, there is room for capital growth in Hounslow.

 

Transport

Hounslow is very well-connected. Hounslow Central, Hounslow East and Hounslow West are on the London Underground Piccadilly line, with easy access to Heathrow and the West End (notably Covent Garden, Green Park and South Kensington). Trains from Hounslow Railway Station reach London Waterloo in 40 minutes. Heathrow will benefit from a station on the new high-speed Crossrail line, with services due to begin in 2019.

Hounslow also has good access to the M4 and the M25 motorways.

 




 

Important Note
Property Partner does not provide advice and nothing in this article should be construed as investment or tax advice. The information which appears in this article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute specific advice. Neither does it constitute a solicitation, offer or recommendation to invest in, or dispose of, any investment that is mentioned in this article. If you are in any doubt as to the suitability of an investment, you should seek independent financial advice. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. There are risks associated with an investment in any of the products featured on our website.